Leeds v Arsenal Bet Builder: Player stats suggest backing cards and home corners

Leeds United host Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday in a 4:30pm kick-off at Elland Road.

After making a terrific impact upon their return to England’s top flight, Marcelo Bielsa’s side have struggled a little in recent matches, losing 4-1 to Leicester City and Crystal Palace prior to the international break.

Arsenal looked to have turned a corner by beating Manchester United 1-0 at Old Trafford, but were humbled 3-0 at home to Aston Villa in a dismal performance.

The bookmakers have the Gunners as 6/5 favourites to win the match, with the draw 11/4 and a home win 2/1.

Personally, I think this is a tough match to call in terms of the outcome, with those odds looking about right to me. Arsenal should find chances a little easier to come by on the counter attack with Leeds always aiming to dominate possession but looking insecure defensively, but they should be stronger in that sense if Kalvin Phillips is fit to start as reported.

Anthony Taylor officiates this clash, with the experienced referee showing both teams one or more card in 10 of his last 14 league matches. The last round of fixtures represented the first time these two sides’ opponents had not picked up a yellow card, with both teams picking up 11 yellow cards in eight league games themselves, so I’m happy to back this in a Bet Builder in what could become a feisty affair providing it remains a close encounter as expected. Taylor has also shown three or more cards in 8 of those 14 matches, so I will add Over 2 Cards for both teams combined, too.

In order to get us to above evens, I’m looking at backing Leeds corners. Bielsa’s side have had five or more in every match since the opening day defeat at Liverpool (averaging 6.85 per game), with Arsenal conceding at least three in every match since dispatching Fulham on the opening day (averaging 5.57 against).

As mentioned, I expect Leeds to dominate possession (they had more of the ball against Liverpool and Manchester City, so should comfortably do so against an Arsenal side who are increasingly happy to sit deeper under Mikel Arteta) and rack up the corners once more. Adding Over 3 Corners for Leeds to our Bet Builder gives us a little bit of wriggle room while taking it to a nice price at 11/10:

In terms of player prices, Bamford has scored in five of his eight matches this season, so looks a good price to do so again at 15/8 (Betfair). He has also managed two or more shots on target on four occasions, with Sky Bet boosting Bamford and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang both managing this to 8/1

The Arsenal forward has only managed this twice this season, but may find more space than usual on the break and will be in line to take any penalties for his side should Taylor award any more having already pointed to the spot on nine occasions in his six matches this season. It’s 7/4 (bet365) for one to be awarded here.

Providing Bukayo Saka starts at left wing-back for Arsenal, I’m also keen on Luke Ayling registering three or more tackles at 11/10 (Sky Bet). The right-back has managed this in five of his eight matches, with Saka attempting more dribbles and drawing more fouls per game than any Arsenal player this season.

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