Saturday sees the first round of matches take place for a whole autumn of top-class rugby internationals, with Betvictor releasing new free bets & the latest odds on England v Fiji, Ireland v South Africa, Wales v Argentina & France v Australia.
England, Ireland and Wales are in action this week as they try to build momentum ahead of the 2013 Six Nations championships in March.
Stuart Lancaster’s England take on Fiji, where their odds of 1/200 (£200 to win £1) with Paddy Power say everything you need to know about how easily they will win.
Lancaster will be using the match as a team bonding exercise to bring the squad together in order to face Australia, South Africa and world champions New Zealand in the coming weeks. Lancaster has made five changes from the side that drew 14-14 on the final day of the tour of South Africa in the summer, with the likes of backs Ugo Monye and Charlie Sharples brought in to boost the attacking nature of the side.
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This is definitely the warm-up before the main event in a couple of weeks, but there still are ways of locking in a profit despite the ludicrously easy nature of the fixture.
As with most international rugby union betting, most of the turnover produced by bookmakers lies in the handicap markets. The line for this match has been set at -32 for England, so England need to win by 33 points in order for anyone taking the 10/11 with Paddy Power to bear fruit. But in our view, the value lies with taking the 10/11 with the same firm about +32 for Fiji, who may have been underrated by the bookmakers.
This is a side that achieved a shock draw against Grand Slam winning Wales just two years ago in Cardiff and did perform well at the last World Cup. They are a hard hitting, well-built side that play very passionately for their country and they will never give up at any point in this match at Twickenham. Taking the 10/11 on them not to beaten by more than 32 looks a fair bet.
Wales are also in action this weekend against Argentina, and have attracted a sell-out crowd to the Millennium. The standard and ability of the young Welsh side has rocketed in the last two years, reaching the semi-finals of the World Cup before winning the Six Nations and Grand Slam in March.
The squad do have a couple of questions to answer though after losing all three of their internationals in Australian. They face the Wallabies once again, this time on their own patch next week, as well as New Zealand and Samoa in December. The Welsh crowd will be expecting a win this weekend over the Argentinians, and so do the bookmakers. Wales have been priced up at 1/4 with Bet365 to kick off the autumn games with a win. Argentina, who have been backed with some firms, are a 7/2 shot with Ladbrokes.
That money could prove significant too, as the Pumas, although not officially rated as one of the world’s best sides, are capable of competing with the big hitters. They are ranked just two places below Wales in the IRB standings, above Scotland, Samoa and Italy.
Physicality is their main weapon of attack, and the Welsh forwards will have known they have been in a match come the final whistle. That said, the home side should have too much firepower in the backs, through Leigh Halfpenny and George North, to rack enough points to quell the threat of the Pumas.
In the day’s other game, Ireland have a tricky test at home to South Africa. The hosts are best priced with Paddy Power at 2/1 to land the spoils but the visitors are a well backed 8/15 shot and they should be too strong for the Irish.