Southampton host Newcastle in the Premier League on Friday in a 8pm kick-off at St Mary’s Stadium.
The hosts are without Danny Ings, Ryan Bertrand and potentially Jan Bednarek, with all three suffering injury in the 4-3 win at Aston Villa last weekend, while Newcastle remain without Martin Dubravka, Jonjo Shelvey, Matt Ritchie and Dwight Gayle after beating Everton 2-1.
Southampton are evens to win the match and subsequently go top of the Premier League for the first time in the club’s history, with the draw 5/2 and a Newcastle win 11/4.
Personally, given the Saints are without Ings, Bertrand and potentially Bednarek, I think they’re too short to win this match and there is definitely value on Newcastle at that price.
Indeed, Newcastle have won four and drawn two of the last six meetings between the two sides, doing the double over Southampton last season when Ralph Hasenhuttl and Steve Bruce were both in charge.
As such I would not dissuade anyone from backing Newcastle on the draw no bet market at 13/8.
As a starting point for a Bet Builder with bet365, I’m going to back Newcastle to score. They have scored in six of their last eight away matches in the league – with one of those two blanks coming in a 5-0 defeat at the Etihad – while Southampton have only kept five clean sheets in 23 home league games going back to the start of last season.
Admittedly two of those have been in their last two home matches with comfortable 2-0 wins over Everton and West Brom, but the former were missing Richarlison and had a half-fit James Rodriguez, while the latter are a poor side at this level. If Bertrand and Bednarek are out, they should also be more vulnerable at the back.
Peter Bankes officiates this match and he has averaged 3.69 yellow cards per game in his 13 Premier League matches, showing both sides one or more cards each in nine of them. With Newcastle averaging more than two yellow cards per game this season and Southampton receiving 11 in their seven matches, I’m happy to back both sides to receive at least one card each to bring the bet above evens at 21/20:
On the Newcastle scoring note, I fancy Callum Wilson to score anytime at 13/8 (Betfair). Bankes has shown five penalties in his last nine matches, with Wilson scoring three from the spot in his last five matches. The England striker has a higher expected goals than any player in the entire division so far this season, with only four players scoring more actual goals than him.
Che Adams also looks very good value at 21/10 (Betfair), with the double with Wilson paying a little over 15/2. If you fancy a safer bet, both strikers have had one or more shots on target in five of their seven appearances this season, with the double paying a little over 6/4 (Betfair).
On the shots on target front, I also like Stuart Armstrong to test Karl Darlow at evens (Betfair). Armstrong is yet to record a shot on target this season despite taking five shots in five matches, but he tested his opposition goalkeeper on 20 occasions in the league last season, so this feels like variance which is bound to end at some point, especially with Ings’ absence increasing the goalscoring burden on other team-mates. It’s as short as 2/5 with Sky Bet so definitely holds value at a double your money price.
In terms of player cards, Kyle Walker-Peters looks a massive price at 6/1 (Sky Bet) given he may be directly up against Allan Saint-Maximin for much of the match and has been carded three times already this season.
However, with Bertrand likely to be out, I would wait for team news as Jan Valery (6/1, bet365) or James Ward-Prowse (4/1, Sky Bet) may cover at right-back with Walker-Peters switching to left-back.
Oriol Romeu also looks a big price at 7/2 (bet365) given he has picked up 47 yellow cards in 138 Premier League starts for the Saints. Perhaps a safer bet, though, may be on him making 3+ and 4+ tackles at 4/6 and 7/4 respectively with Sky Bet.
The former has landed in six of his seven starts this season, with the latter landing in five. Clearly he has taken the tackling mantle from Pierre Emile Hojbjerg in Hasenhuttl’s engine room very well so far this season.